Exploring the Underlying Poll Numbers behind Abortion (2)
More data
Last month I wrote announcing a little project to sift through the numbers about American public opinion on abortion and the then-meaningful disgrace known as Roe v. Wade. Since then, Roe has become history, but the battle over perceptions of public opinion shows no signs of slowing down. (There may be new emphasis on the dimension of “public opinion of the Supreme Court” with particular language about its “legitimacy.”*) At any rate, clarity and full perspective in the state of public opinion matters, similarly to clarity and comprehensive awareness of the state of abortion laws across the globe.
I’m accepting that this is going to be a Lightyear-esque multi-part series. This post just goes through the four prominent pollsters I’ve picked out and the questions they ask people, from which I figure we can suss out the state of popular opinion.
So looking past the interpreters of poll numbers (the NPRs and LifeNewses of the world alike), I’ve found 4 providers of poll numbers I want to use, at least with this alpha census of pollsters: Pew Research Center, the Associated Press-NORC, the Hamden, CT-based Quinnipiac University, and the Milwaukee, WI-based Marquette University. (Does naming your University with a prominent Q increase your odds of becoming notorious pollsters . . . ?)
These pollsters tend to ask the same questions over the course of time, which is helpful.
Pew’s banner question is “Do you think abortion should be ...” and then 4 possible options, presented in random order, presenting combinations of “legal/illegal in all/most cases.” Their raw numbers are here, their short read is here, and their report is here. Pew has also asked “Would you like to see the Supreme Court completely overturn its Roe versus Wade decision, or not?” Pew also had some follow-ups about potential exceptions, which involved putting options in order.
AP-NORC asked very similar questions. First: “Which comes closest to your opinion on abortion? Abortion should be . . . Legal/illegal in all/most cases.” The second has some nuanced difference: “What should the US Supreme Court do about Roe v. Wade, the 1973 decision on abortion: Leave as is / Overturn it?”
Quinnipiac, too, had indistinguishable wording: “Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?” They also asked a follow-up question, “How about when the pregnancy was caused by rape or incest; do you think abortion should be legal in that situation or illegal?”
Quinnipiac’s SCOTUS question, though, deserves note: “In general, do you agree or disagree with the 1973 Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision that established a woman's right to an abortion?” That is a significantly different question—someone might generally disagree with a Supreme Court decision while also believing that precedent means it shouldn’t be overturned. (I guess we’ll see, when we actually start comparing these numbers, whether that made much of a difference to the generally polled public.)
Quinnipiac also asked a pair of electoral questions, “If a candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives or the U.S. Senate - supports/opposes abortion rights, does that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or doesn't it make a difference?” (This poll was conducted in May, before the overturning of Roe.)
Finally, from Marquette’s 2022 National Supreme Court Survey, we have “Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases?” The consistency is quite nice, I have to say.
We also have, for their SCOTUS question,
“Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion?
Overturn Roe versus Wade, thus strike down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states.”
But also!
“Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion?
Rule to uphold a state law that (except in cases of medical emergencies or fetal abnormalities) bans abortions after the 15th week of pregnancy.”
Marquette also went granular: “Here are some limits on when during pregnancy an abortion might be banned, except in cases of medical emergencies, that some states are considering. How much do you favor or oppose each of these proposals?” The survey offered respondents the chance to strongly or somewhat favor or oppose
Finally, Marquette also included a Quinnipiac-style “Thinking about this year's (2022) elections, if one candidate favors keeping abortion legal and widely available and the other candidate favors strictly limiting abortion except to protect the mother’s life, which candidate would you support?”
Tomorrow I plan on digging in to the numbers themselves. Then we can zoom out again and see how spinners are crafting such wildly different headlines from them.
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*A footnote about newspapers: I thought, for a long time, that The New York Times was America’s newspaper with the highest circulation. It’s not. It’s #3, behind the Wall Street Journal and, at #1, USA Today. What’s more, it’s apparently never been #1. Anyway, I do plan to continue making particular reference to them and not calling it cherrypicking, partly from the inertia of receiving their daily newsletters, and partly on the justification that they are widely regarded as “significant,” the “paper of record,” and so forth.